Odds of Winning Lottery: What Are Your Real Chances?
Every week, millions of people in the UK purchase lottery tickets hoping to hit the jackpot. But what are the actual chances of winning, and how do the numbers really add up?
Many wonder if playing more than once actually improves outcomes, or if one type of draw is more favourable than another. There’s also curiosity about how often players win smaller prizes compared to the largest ones on offer.
This blog post explores how lottery chances are calculated, breaks down how different draws compare, and looks at why people continue to participate despite what the statistics suggest. Read on to learn more.
How Do Lottery Odds Actually Work?
The concept of odds tells us how often a particular outcome is expected to occur. In lotteries, this is based on the number of possible combinations a player could choose compared to the one set that will actually be drawn.
In most games, players select several numbers from a larger pool. For instance, some draws use a 6-from-59 format, where players pick 6 numbers out of 59. The larger the pool or the more numbers required, the harder it becomes to match them all.
Each draw is a separate event. Choosing the same numbers repeatedly or changing them every week does not affect the overall outcome. Some games also include additional features, like a secondary number, which can affect outcomes for certain types of prizes.
At first glance, this may seem straightforward. But when you look closely at what it takes to hit the top prize, the picture shifts.
What Are the Chances of Winning the Jackpot?
In the case of the UK National Lottery’s 6-from-59 format, the total number of unique combinations is 45,057,474. That means a single ticket has a 1 in 45 million+ chance of landing the jackpot.
With EuroMillions, things become even less likely. Players choose 5 numbers from 50 plus 2 Lucky Stars from 12, creating a total of 139,838,160 possible combinations for the top prize.
These figures are based on mathematical probability. They do not shift based on personal number choices or previous results. Even widely shared number patterns, like birthdays or lucky numbers, don’t increase the odds of winning—they just increase the chances that any prize might be shared among several people.
So, while headlines might highlight someone’s large win, the reality behind those stories involves extremely rare outcomes.
How Likely Are You to Win Smaller Lottery Prizes?
Compared to the top prize, some wins are much more accessible. In the UK National Lottery, a match of three numbers results in a fixed payout, with odds around 1 in 97. Matches of four or five become progressively harder, but remain far more attainable than the full six.
EuroMillions offers a small prize for matching two main numbers, with odds of roughly 1 in 22. From there, more matches lead to higher prize tiers, although most of those tiers offer lower amounts than the jackpot and often less than the ticket cost.
Prizes may be set amounts or drawn from a pool, so the value can change between draws. Regardless, outcomes where nothing is won are more common than those where something is.
These smaller wins give a sense of progress, which keeps some people engaged. But how do the different games stack up against each other overall?
Lottery Odds Compared: National Lottery vs EuroMillions
Let’s look at the bigger picture. While both games offer jackpots and smaller prizes, the structures behind them differ significantly.
In the National Lottery, the odds of winning any prize are around 1 in 9.3. The jackpot odds, as noted earlier, are about 1 in 45 million.
In EuroMillions, a player’s chance of winning any prize is approximately 1 in 13, while the jackpot remains a much steeper 1 in nearly 140 million.
Though EuroMillions tends to advertise much larger jackpots, the likelihood of securing one is lower than in the National Lottery. The variety of smaller prize levels is broader, but that does not always translate into favourable outcomes per ticket.
So why, knowing all this, do so many still decide to play?
Why Do So Many People Play Despite the Odds?
The lottery’s appeal is not just about mathematics—it’s often emotional. For many, the price of entry is low enough to justify the chance of potentially winning.
Popular culture, media stories, and large rollover amounts play a big role in keeping interest alive. Office pools and group entries also make it a more social activity, especially when the potential prize is unusually large.
Occasionally winning a modest amount can feel like encouragement. This feeling—more than the numbers—helps explain why people return. It also brings up another common question: Does quantity matter?
Can Playing More Tickets Improve Your Chances?
Playing more tickets in a single draw increases the number of combinations you hold. If a draw offers over 45 million possible combinations and you own 10 distinct entries, the chance improves from 1 in 45 million to about 1 in 4.5 million.
This is a straightforward mathematical increase, but even then, the likelihood of a top result remains extremely low.
Some players join groups (like syndicates) to increase the collective number of entries without raising the cost per person. If that group wins, the payout is shared equally among members. This approach improves the group’s odds overall while splitting any reward that may result.
Still, it leads to the final and perhaps most grounded question: Is it worth it?
Is the Lottery a Good Way to Spend Your Money?
If you decide to play the lottery, it’s often about the experience rather than the outcome. For many, buying a ticket now and then is a small, casual purchase—something done for a bit of entertainment or the thought of what could happen, rather than with any serious expectation of winning.
Given how unlikely the main prizes are, it can help to think of a lottery ticket in the same way you might view other forms of entertainment—something you pay for knowing it probably won’t return anything tangible. Most tickets don’t win, and spending more won’t change that basic reality.
If you ever find yourself playing regularly, it’s worth making sure the money comes from your spare budget, what you’d usually spend on non-essential things, and not from what you need for day-to-day living. And if it stops feeling enjoyable or becomes something you’re finding hard to step back from, support is available through organisations like BeGambleAware.
By being clear about how the odds work, understanding what each game offers, and keeping a limit on what you’re comfortable spending, you can decide when and how playing the lottery fits into your life—if at all.
*All values (Bet Levels, Maximum Wins, etc.) mentioned in relation to this game are subject to change at any time. Game features mentioned may not be available in some jurisdictions.
**The information provided in this blog is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as betting advice or a guarantee of success. Always gamble responsibly.